Predictions for 2023
A couple pages into reading Superforecasting and already feel like I am GCR
Here are a couple predictions for 2023.
$ETH $500 during black swan event (yes I am predicting a random black swan event and black swan events are unpredictable by definition)
$ETH ends the year around $1800
SBF blames Sam Trabucco for downfall
SPY touches $330 (pre covid high)
Gautam Adani richest person in the world (at least briefly)
Twitter gets ruined by AI bots
Crypto based social media platform rises from shadows and mass CT migration (Bitclout esque but more decentralised and community based)
Crypto price becomes more boring and less volatile. FTX was probably last domino to fall from contagion (aka Binance/Circle/Coinbase/Tether don't go bankrupt)
Elon reputation bear market. Tesla/Doge continue decline (would be careful shorting due to random spikes caused by Musk shenanigans) . Contrary to what Elon thinks, even FULL FSD release won't save Tesla stock price. The most bearish thing you can do as a leader of speculative company is finally release your long awaited product. Tesla gets reevaluated and narrative shifts from "technology" company to more of an automobile company as more tradinitional automakers start to focus on EVs and self driving.
Social media prediction markets more popular and common. Betting on individuals and online reputation (similar to point 8).
Elon sells at least another $5 billion worth of stock