A Year Later: Revisiting Predictions
It's Not Good
Chat I made some predictions a year ago. Let's review them and see how wrong or right I was and some thoughts on predictions.
First, here are the predictions from last year.
1. $ETH $500 during black swan event (yes I am predicting a random black swan event and black swan events are unpredictable by definition)
2. $ETH ends the year around $1800
3. SBF blames Sam Trabucco for downfall
4. SBF disappears
5. SPY touches $330 (pre covid high)
6. Gautam Adani richest person in the world (at least briefly)
7. Twitter gets ruined by AI bots
8. Crypto based social media platform rises from shadows and mass CT migration (Bitclout esque but more decentralised and community based)
9. Crypto price becomes more boring and less volatile. FTX was probably last domino to fall from contagion (aka Binance/Circle/Coinbase/Tether don't go bankrupt)
10. Elon reputation bear market. Tesla/Doge continue decline (would be careful shorting due to random spikes caused by Musk shenanigans) . Contrary to what Elon thinks, even FULL FSD release won't save Tesla stock price. The most bearish thing you can do as a leader of speculative company is finally release your long awaited product. Tesla gets reevaluated and narrative shifts from "technology" company to more of an automobile company as more tradinitional automakers start to focus on EVs and self driving.
11. Social media prediction markets more popular and common. Betting on individuals and online reputation (similar to point 8).
12. Elon sells at least another $5 billion worth of stock
1. ETH was $1227 a year ago. It's now $2250 and it literally bottomed 2 days later at slightly less than $1200. Wrong
2. ETH ends the year at around $2200. Would consider this a win as ETH was around $1800 for most the year. Correct.
3. SBF did blame Trabucco. Correct.
4. SBF disappears. I thought he would die. Wrong.
5. SPY is up 20%. Wrong.
6. The Hindenburg Research Report came out in Jan 23. 💀. Wrong
7. Kind of. AI reply bots dominate threads but monitisation might be worse for Twitter than AI reply bots. Correct.
8. Friendtech and others. Correct
9. Boring. Correct.
10. Reputation worsened for political reasons. Correct.
11. Manifold Markets, Polymarket and others. Correct.
12. After $40B in 2022, Elon was done selling. Wrong.
I don't like this post. I truly don't.
The idea of predictions is dumb. I don't understand why I did it a year ago but I had to follow up to put an end to this.
It goes back to the idea of being in the Arena as espoused by Theodore Roosevelt.
“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.” - Theodore Roosevelt
It's easy to make random predictions about stuff that other people are doing.
As cringe as the phrase is now because of Chamath getting memed into oblivion. By some weak measure, I am in the Arena having put money on the line in the markets and playing around with new technologies and reading and writing but making random pointless predictions about the year?
The eternal goal of life is to be in the Arena.
It's similar to the idea of the "Journey before Destination" or "Do what you like and you will never work a day in your life" or the answer to the question "What will you do if money wasn't an object anymore?"
Making predictions isn't being in the Arena. It's commenting as a spectator and that's not what I want to spend my time doing.
So for 2024, no more predictions. Time to end this. Also less posts on current events without my own takeaways or lessons.